World Cup 2011 Letest Point Table | Quarter-final permutations

	Matches	Won	Lost	Tied	No Result	Points	NRR
Sri Lanka	6	4	1	0	1	9	2.58
Australia	5	4	0	0	1	9	1.69
New Zealand	6	4	2	0	0	8	1.13
Pakistan	5	4	1	0	0	8	0.73

The only match of consequence left in the group is the Australia-Pakistan clash. The final standings in the group, will therefore depend on the following scenarios:

Scenario 1: Australia beat Pakistan

This will mean that Australia take the top spot in the table with 11 points. Pakistan's Net Run Rate is lower than New Zealand's and a defeat will only lower it further, so they will stay in 4th place. The order of the teams would then be: Australia, Sri Lanka, New Zealand, Pakistan.

Scenario 2: Pakistan beat Australia

This would see Pakistan top the table with 10 points. Sri Lanka's Net Run Rate is above Australia's, and a defeat will lower Australia's further, which means the position of the top four teams would be: Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Australia, New Zealand.

Scenario 3: Tie or No Result

Granted, this is the least likely scenario, but there has already been one tie, one no result and innumerable close finishes in this World Cup, and should it happen again, the standings will be thus: Australia, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, New Zealand.

That takes care of Group A. Group B, however, is where the real action is at. In Group A, the quarter-finalists were already known, only their order was yet to be determined. In Group B however, only South Africa is 100 percent sure of its quarter-final spot. The other three places have to be fought over between India, England, West Indies and Bangladesh.

	Matches	Won	Lost	Tied	No Result	Points	NRR
South Africa	6	5	1	0	0	10	1.61
India	5	3	1	1	0	7	0.77
England	6	3	2	1	0	7	0.07
West Indies	5	3	2	0	0	6	1.65
Bangladesh	6	3	3	0	0	6	-0.77

There are two matches of consequence here: Bangladesh vs South Africa and India vs West Indies. As before, the scenarios for the combination of results in these matches would be thus:

Scenario 1: South Africa beat Bangladesh, India beat West Indies

Most people expect the group to play out exactly this way. But then, most people expected England to lose to India and South Africa and beat Bangladesh and Ireland. However, if it does play out this way, the four top teams in order would be: South Africa, India, England, West Indies. Bangladesh will be on equal points with the West Indies, but given the astronomical difference in Net Run Rates and the fact that they would have been beaten by South Africa, it is impossible for them to finish above the West Indies in this scenario.

Scenario 2: South AFrica beat Bangladesh, West Indies beat India

This scenario would see West Indies vault to second place. If they beat India by a sufficiently huge margin (by about 170 runs if batting first and get to the target in about 20 overs if fielding first), then they would have pushed India's Net Run Rate below England's. Since that is highly unlikely, the order in this scenario would be: South Africa, West Indies, India, England.

Scenario 3: South Africa beat Bangladesh, India and West Indies tie/no result

Again, the chances of a tie are unlikely, but even so, the order of the teams will be: South Africa, India, West Indies, England.

Scenario 4: Bangladesh beat South Africa, India beat West Indies

We now move into the set of scenarios in which Bangladesh could beat South Africa. If that happens, West Indies will get knocked out if they lose to India. In this case, South Africa and Bangladesh will have the same points, but South Africa's vast Net Run Rate superiority will ensure that the order will be: India, South Africa, Bangladesh, England.

Scenario 5: Bangladesh beat South Africa, West Indies beat India

This scenario would leave Bangladesh, South Africa and West Indies tied at 8 points each. Given that West Indies enjoy a slight NRR superiority to South Africa, a win for them and a loss for South Africa will widen that gap and West Indies will top the table. India and England will be on 7 points each, and if India is beaten by a big enough margin (the 170 runs or 20 overs chase discussed above), they will get knocked out of the World Cup. If they manage the fairly easy task of avoiding defeat by such a huge margin, the order of the teams would be: West Indies, South Africa, Bangladesh, India.

Scenario 6: Bangladesh beat South Africa, West Indies tie/no result with India

In this scenario, England and West Indies will both be on 7 points, with West Indies having a superior NRR. India, South Africa and Bangladesh will be on 8 points each and the order of the top 4 would be: South Africa, India, Bangladesh, West Indies.

Scenario 7: South Africa tie/no result with Bangladesh, India beat West Indies

In this case, South Africa and India will both be on 9 points, and India will have to inflict a big loss on the Windies to overcome their NRR deficit against South Africa. If they don't, the top four would be: South Africa, India, England, Bangladesh.

Scenario 8: South Africa tie/no result with Bangladesh, West Indies beat India

In this case the order would be: South Africa, West Indies, India, England, with Bangladesh also on 7 points (equal to India and England) but missing out due to Net Run Rate.

Scenario 9: Both matches end up in a tie/no result

In the extremely unlikely case that this happens, the order of the teams would be: South Africa, India, West Indies, England.

If we discount the scenarios with ties/no results in them, there are only Scenarios 1,2,4 and 5. In each of them, India makes an appearance, which might be comforting to an Indian fan. Going further, if India expect the best for themselves, they will target beating the West Indies. And if the teams play according to their strengths, South Africa should beat Bangladesh, which means India will finish 2nd. If Australia beat Pakistan, India will face New Zealand in their quarter-final, whereas if Pakistan beat Australia, India will face Australia at Ahmedabad.